Pandemic

Episode 2: Restarting Events, Safely

Evidence has shown that restrictions on mass gatherings implemented early on in pandemic can greatly reduce the risk of transmission. However, research in virus transmission at mass gatherings is showing varied evidence in the association of size with the transmission of influenza.

Íse Murphy-Morris

May 31, 2020 — 7 min read

It’s easy to assume that if influenza could be transmitted within the home, at school and at work, that the risk is exponential at a sports event or festival. Evidence has shown us that if restrictions on mass gatherings are implemented early on in pandemic, alongside other social distancing measures, can greatly reduce the risk of transmission. However, research conducted into virus transmission at mass gatherings is showing that there is varied evidence in the association of size with the transmission of influenza (Ishola and Phin, 2011). In the current climate, the banning of events seems to be based on size rather than any other factor, but is this the appropriate metric to measure? Is the risk of transmission greatly reduced by banning an event over 1,000 people but allowing one with 999 to go ahead?

Density and Duration

Reducing density and shortening duration at an event reduces the risk of transmission.

Research into public health at mass gatherings shows that it appears the type of event is key in assessing the level of risk to spreading influenza (Ishola and Phin, 2011). Events with high crowd densities (estimated at 5 or more per square metre) and where people lived close together for prolonged periods, for example, Hajj pilgrimage and large music festivals, displayed high rates of transmission (Memish et al, 2015). The authors even claim that the size of the event does not seem to be a critical factor. The higher transmission rates seem to be where contact continues outside of the event venue, such as accommodation; and events with campsites usually have sub-optimal hygiene facilities.

Reducing density is usually the first policy implemented as we already know that social distancing works. Evidence tells us that cities implementing rapid and strict non-pharmaceutical measures including social distancing early on in a pandemic, recover quicker than cities that don’t (Correia et al, 2020). Reducing density and shortening duration at an event reduces the risk of transmission.

Post-Pandemic Crowd Behaviour (Taylor's Version)

Do Swifties hold the key to safer crowds when crowd behaviour at events is at an all time low?

#5. Becky Stevens - Event Control, Safety Advisory Groups, managing an emergency evacuation, insights into the Fatboy Slim concert on Brighton Beach in 2002

‎Safety Sistas: 5. Becky Stevens - Event Control, Safety Advisory Groups, managing an emergency evacuation, insights into the Fatboy Slim concert on Brighton Beach in 2002 on Apple Podcasts‎Show Safety Sistas, Ep 5. Becky Stevens - Event Control, Safety Advisory Groups, managing an emergency evacuation, insights into the Fatboy

#4. Morten Therkildsen - Roskilde Festival, IBIT 2023, evolution of formal education, Safety and Security, Zone Ex, politics, high reliability organisation, definition of a Crowd Manager

‎Safety Sistas: 4. Morten Therkildsen - Roskilde Festival, IBIT 2023, evolution of formal education, Safety and Security, Zone Ex, politics, high reliability organisation, definition of a Crowd Manager on Apple Podcasts‎Show Safety Sistas, Ep 4. Morten Therkildsen - Roskilde Festival, IBIT 2023, evolution of formal education, Safety and Security,

#3. Anne Marie Chebib and KT Sonnen - The BBC report on malpractice in security training, regulation, expectations on security and stewarding, the wider picture, and evolution of our industry.

After the release of ⁠BBC’s File on 4⁠ undercover investigation, on the 3 October 2023, into “sham training” in the security industry, Íse sits down with Ann Marie Chebib, Managing Director of Select Security and Secretary of UK Crowd Management Association and Global Crowd Management Alliance and KT Sonnen